Tuesday, January 23, 2007

living smartly

Scott has a theory, and that is, if the weather forecast says 3-6 inches, it really means, 1-3 inches. If it says 2-3 inches, its probably a dusting. Yesterday scott was proven right yet again! We were predicted to get 3 inches of snow, and we got about 1.5 inches to be exact. It was sort of freaky. This theory can be extended too. If they say a "dusting" of snow. Be prepared for microscopic flurries. If they say, rain changing into snow, prepare for just rain. The only time he is really off on this is when it is a coastal storm and the 3-6 inches turns into the storm of the century, but even then he seems to have a hunch when this is going to be the case (think of the birthday blizzard, 2003).

So I feel compelled to lay out a few of scott's theories, since, truth be told, when i follow them, Im actually finding myself doing pretty well.

Scott's first theory: Always get into the lane that is merging.
Review: Scott's second theory: run in the dark, run in the cold, but dont run in the dark and cold
Review: Scott's third theory: Always "half" the snow predictions.

I should probably take up the first theory tomorrow since I have developed treatises on second and third here already.

2 comments:

boymilo said...

I find theory three slightly disturbing. It would imply that the factors that forecasters use to make predictions may have been compromised by global warming. Get out the suntan lotion!

K

speedracer said...

Allow me to elaborate!

Call me cynical, but weather reporting is all about fear. The more scared people are, the more they'll watch the local news and the less likely they'll be to do dangerous, scary things like, drive, walk, and go outside, all of which potentially remove them from their television.

In engineering, there is a concept of "factor of safety", where, if your bridge is expected to carry 100 cars at a time, you build it so it can carry 300 cars at a time, just to be safe. That would be a factor of safety of three.

I think in meteorology school, students are taught to use a factor of scary, with a nominal value of two.

 
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